FOSR Home > Newsletters > FALL 1999

The Shenandoah watershed has been experiencing drought conditions for the past two years. Though the September rainfall from hurricane Dennis of a several inches provided some relief, there is little hope for a significant change in the coming months unless Floyd or other hurricanes this Fall make up the shortfall. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long range forecast, the La Nina effect may cause another dry year for 2000. This compounding effect of dry years - one after another - is building to what may be one of the worst periods of drought for the Shenandoah since the drought of 1933. Drought advisories, warnings, or emergencies have been declared by all the counties and municipalities in the Shenandoah watershed and measures such as alternate day lawn watering or outright bans on lawn watering, a ban on open fires and use of water for car washing and other measures have been implemented or are being considered.

Throughout the Shenandoah watershed region, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has measured and documented the near-record low flows in the Shenandoah river during August. The Table below compares the current flow at three of the stream gauges operated by the USGS in the Shenandoah river. For comparison, the mean flow recorded over an 85 year time during August is also shown. It can be seen that flows in the main stem of the Shenandoah during August were only about 1/4 of normal. Flows on the North Fork were not much better at only are only 1/3 of the normal, and flows on the South Fork were at 56% of normal flow.

Freshwater inflow to the Chesapeake Bay was at record lows in June and July, with corresponding lows in its major tributaries such as the Shenandoah river which contributes about one-third of the water in the Potomac River with the Potomac flow making up about 20% of the freshwater entering the Bay each year. This is leading to the increased salinity and low dissolved oxygen which in turn may cause massive fish kills and other detrimental effects on the ecology of the Bay.

The drought is causing dramatic shortages in surface water and ground water In the Shenandoah watershed region. Major public water suppliers still have enough water in production wells and from sources such as quarries, the South Fork and the main stem to meet needs for the near term, but may not be able to meet future demands if precipitation does not return to near normal in the fall and winter. And families that depend on wells are already experiencing water shortages in several parts of the Shenandoah watershed region. According to the Northern Virginia Daily (September 2, 1999) wells in a number of the counties have been failing.

The drought, of course, is the major cause for the low water levels in the Shenandoah river. In addition to the drought, however, there are a number of other reasons for the low flows in the river.

The population and industry being served by the Shenandoah watershed is growing fast. And there probably is a large "suppressed" demand for water from the population and industry that would like to move in but are concerned about the availability of water. Especially important is the high annual growth-rate of population in Frederick County and the City of Winchester which, though recent data are not readily available, are reportedly growing at annual rates of 15% and 5%. For Frederick County especially, these are high growth rates: 15% growth implies a doubling of population every five years.

The increasing demand for water is aggravated by the waste of water lost through old water pipes and other aging infrastructure. The water distribution infrastructure in Winchester is so old that there have been a number of serious breakages in water mains. These breaks have caused many enterprises to close down for a day or two. Data on losses of water through leaks in the old water pipes are not available, but judging from the experience in similar cities, the losses could amount to 30% or more of total water consumed.

The growing economy is accompanied by the building of more roads, parking lots, homes, shopping malls, and driveways. These create large surfaces that are impervious to rain. As a result the aquifers are not refilled, and the rain water is not stored for gentle and regular release to creeks, springs, and wells. Rather, much of the rainwater evaporates or rapidly runs off into storm drains and sewers where it is discharged into streams and quickly lost from the local aquifers to distant oceans and bays.

Long range and comprehensive planning to meet the needs of the Shenandoah Valley is an absolute need. Crisis reaction to meet the water needs during periods of low flow is untenable and illogical. The Shenandoah watershed collects more than enough rainfall during the rainy season to provide ample river flows during the dry season. It is a matter of engaging in watershed-wide cooperative planning to provide for the reservoirs and impoundments that can supplement the low flows during droughts and periods of low rainfall.

At several points in the Shenandoah river the stream flow is already so low that it threatens to interfere with the supply of water to several municipalities. For example, the town of Berryville in Clarke County has two water intakes. According to the USGS the upper intake needs a flow of about 452 mgd to enable withdrawal of water. The lower intake requires a flow above 65 mgd to stay open. But the average August flow near the Berryville water intakes was at 134 mgd, and this is well below the volume of 452 mgd required to keep the upper water intake exposed. Even with the upper water intake closed however, the August flow is fortunately still above the level of 65 mgd required to keep the lower intake exposed. However, the margin in not very large and a further reduction in the flow could conceivably force the shutting down of Berryville's water intake from the river.

If the quantity of water flowing in a river decreases while the emissions into the river of effluents from wastewater treatment plants stays the same, the concentration of harmful chemicals, of course, increases. The total allowable daily limit of a pollutant is set assuming that the flow in the river is "normal." If the flow is only 1/2 of normal, however, the concentration of pollutants could be double the allowed limit. The impact on the increased concentration of chemicals is very evident for nitrogen and phosphorus because these chemicals are nutrients for aquatic plants (in addition to possibly being harmful to humans). The unusually heavy growth of aquatic plants in the Shenandoah river clearly demonstrates the abundance of these nutrients. Although the profusion of aquatic plants has no harmful effect at present -- in fact these plants are beneficial to fish and other forms of aquatic life -- these plants will soon die. And when they die the large masses of rotting vegetable matter will deplete the level of oxygen in the river, and large fish kills may result.

Low water levels should necessitate a tightening of standards for discharge of pollutants to the river. Such tightened standards may be hard to meet by conventional wastewater treatment plants, and undoubtedly will increase the cost of wastewater treatment in those facilities.

Because of the low water, canoe outfitters along the Shenandoah river are reporting a sharp drop in rental of canoes. The losses in recreational enjoyment and economic losses to the region in lost income from canoeists have not been estimated. There is no doubt, however, that these losses are significant.

As noted by James. P. Longerbeam, Chairman of the Frederick County Board of Supervisors, "Opinions about how to solve water needs seem much more plentiful than rain this year." Though many of these proposals have merit and are being enacted, such as the encouragement of conservative use of water and repair of leaking water mains, others are not well defined and may be far from optimum. For example, while knowing that flows on the main stem are critically low and barely sufficient to preserve recreational uses of fishing and canoeing, proposals are offered to withdraw larger quantities of water from the main stem.

Proposals in a recent water supply study for the Frederick/Winchester Service Authority include drilling of production wells, withdrawing more water from the main stem and the North and South Fork, and establishing reservoirs or impoundments for collecting water during the rainy season for release during the dry season. (Preliminary calculations indicate that such reservoirs can be constructed at reasonable cost, and could vastly multiply the water available during the dry season and during prolonged droughts.)

The recycling of treated wastewater is an alternative needing consideration. Much water used today for human purposes does not need to be of potable quality. Treated wastewater with appropriate disinfection can be reused for many purposes and is used in parts of the U.S. for watering lawns, charging fire suppression systems, car washes, watering golf courses, etc. Recycling treated wastewater has the potential for dramatic reduction in raw water requirements for potable purposes.

These proposals are not without merit, but they need to be discussed and worked out within the regional context where all players, both in the public and private sector, can have a voice. Remember, "We all live downstream."

It is now being recognized that dabbling with the water system on a county by county basis is politically divisive and unproductive. And a ground swell is developing to achieve regional cooperation. During late August, Frederick County announced that it wants to be the catalyst for a regional consortium that would encompass the Lord Fairfax Planning District. A meeting is proposed for September 29 to discuss how to start the process of regional planning to meet future water needs. And there seems to be consensus in the district that the proposed meeting could be useful.

It may be useful to think about the Agenda of such a meeting, and the following elements could possibly be included:

Would this be the task of the Lord Fairfax Planning District Commission (LFPDC)? An advantage is that this commission is already funded and the institutional underpinnings are in place. It would need considerable additional funding and strengthening, however, to be enable it to address the comprehensive issue of watershed-wide water supply planning. Or should the old River Basin Commission established in 1965, but dismantled during the Reagan administration in the late 70’s be revived? The consortium proposed by Frederick County can serve as a catalyst to get the process of watershed-wide water supply planning started, and may be able to serve as a steering committee to guide the process. However, the consortium may not have the time or resources to actually manage and plan the process.

A Minimum Instream Flow (MIF) study is underway on the North Fork and the LFPDC is already funded, though additional funding would be needed for them to carry out management and planning functions. In addition to public funds, a source of funding that should not be overlooked is that of "user charges". In the same way that the public pays for other services, such as roads where the maintenance and construction comes from surcharges on gasoline and diesel fuel, provision of water supply infrastructure including reservoirs could be funded through user charges. Preliminary calculations indicate that such charges would be very low, and on the order of pennies a day for the average consumer. Experience has shown that users are not at all reluctant to pay such charges providing they get the improved service they expect.

From the technical point of view there are no insurmountable obstacles to the construction of reservoirs. Reservoirs are in common use throughout the U.S. There are, of course, technical issues such as Karst geology that need to be competently addressed.

Funding the reservoirs can probably be done best through user charges. The benefits of a stable and sufficient supply will very likely far exceed the costs. And the user charges required to finance the initial investment and subsequent operating costs will amount to only pennies per day for the average consumer.

The political obstacles are more difficult, but can be solved. One of the main problem that is being addressed now is that of getting cooperation among the various jurisdictions.

Compensation of landowners is legally required if there is a "taking" of land for public usage. However, the process might be easier if the landowners understand the water will not be wasted, and that measures are being taken to improve the efficiency of the existing water system by repairing leaks in the old water pipes Furthermore, the reservoir should be an attractive element of the landscape with adequate attention being paid to scenic beauty, to preservation of wetlands and wild life, and to the provision of well-managed recreational opportunities.